There has been much talk of holidaymakers opting for 'safe havens' this summer and avoiding destinations in the eastern Mediterranean. Turkey and Egypt have not been directly impacted by the conflict in the Middle East, but they are near enough to make holidaymakers think twice. This is the conclusion drawn by Spain's tourism institute, Turespaña, which is pointing to a 15% increase in German demand for both the Balearics and the Canaries and to a 32% increase for Spanish mainland destinations.
There are other countries that might conceivably suffer from a diversion of tourism, but it is Turkey and Egypt on which Turespaña concentrates, its latest trends report observing that the war "has disrupted market logic". By this, it means that the German market has shown signs of reaching a "price sensitivity limit". There has been evidence of this in Mallorca, where German demand has been falling since May last year. Holidaymakers were prioritising "the most economical bookings" against the background of a domestic economy marked by stagnation.
A mild economic recovery is expected in Germany, but this is incidental. Turespaña says prices have ceased to be the primary criterion, while it is also clear that "discussions about sustainability, climate change, and overtourism have taken a back seat". There is, for instance, "a significant slowdown" in bookings to Turkey.
Germany is the Balearics' largest tourism market. Or rather, it is Mallorca's largest tourism market, as over 90% of all German tourists heading for the Balearics travel to Mallorca. More affordable destinations, such as Turkey, had been gaining ground, which was why there was the fall in the island's German tourism last year. But the conflict has changed this.
Factors unrelated to the Middle East may have an impact on German decisions to travel - the World Cup and airlines' labour disputes - although the former is typically over-exaggerated and airlines are saying they can guarantee normal operations. The airlines are in fact increasing capacity for the safe destinations, the potentially more important issue continuing to be fuel supplies.
As to the second largest market - the UK - Turespaña says the situation is similar to that of Germany. Turkey and Egypt are losing their appeal because of the conflict, with the British apparently looking to Morocco and Tunisia as alternatives.