The ITB tourism fair in Berlin was held last week. For the Balearics tourism industry, Berlin is the most important of the annual fairs if judged solely on numbers of tourists. The German market is the largest. In 2025, the Balearics attracted 4,927,029 German tourists, 26% of all tourists. For Mallorca alone, the percentage was 34%. The distribution of German tourists across the islands is massively skewed in Mallorca's favour: 4.57 million in 2025.
The German market isn't unique in being so Mallorca-focused; the Nordic Countries likewise basically ignore the other islands. But because of the size of the market, any discussion of trends is essentially a discussion of Mallorca's tourism. This isn't the case with the British or the Spanish, whose tourism is more broadly distributed to Menorca and Ibiza.
German tourism dipped by just under two per cent in 2025. This decrease was the same for both Mallorca and the Balearics as a whole. A market that had registered healthy growth for month after month suddenly went into reverse last May. In only one month thereafter was there an increase; that was November.
The downward trend continued in January. For all that there has been a decline, the tourism industry is suggesting that this reflects less a sign of weakness and more an adjustment within a deeper trend: the redistribution of German tourism throughout the year.
Taking account of figures from 2024 up to May last year, the industry's interpretation is one of a gradual shift towards the mid and low seasons. There is less reliance on sun and beach and a greater emphasis on tourists seeking culture, nature, or experiences connected to the region. This is what the industry is telling itself anyway; the Balearic Government likes to as well. The trouble is that the most recent figures, with the exception of November, can't be said to back this up.
The president of the Mallorca Hoteliers Federation, Javier Vich, says: "Germany is not just the main market that sustains us as a destination. It is the structural pillar that supports the destination's annual balance." He points out that it is the market that best distributes demand and sustains the pre-season and autumn.
In this regard he is right. But this has been the situation for years. For a Mallorcan winter, German tourism has been the only game in town. Yes, there is Spanish tourism, but the spending profile is very different. Much of the Spanish tourism is Imserso, Spanish pensioners on subsidised holidays staying in all-inclusive hotels.
The hoteliers don't see the German market as weakened; it is a more cautious market. Nevertheless, German tourism spending is projected to grow by around three per cent in 2026 up to around €86 billion. Studies rank travel as the second most important expense for Germans, second only to healthcare. Therefore, Mallorcan hoteliers conclude that the German market will continue to favour destinations that convey stability, safety, and professionalism, attributes which, in their view, Mallorca offers.
Given the current international climate, these are factors that can't be underestimated. But despite talk of tourism being diverted away from the eastern Mediterranean to the west, the hoteliers feel that the German market will likely not grow in volume this year, but that it will grow in value. And it will continue to be the market that best distributes demand throughout the tourist season, this being key to the objective of balancing the season beyond the summer months.
But whether this is actually the case or any more so than has been the case in the past is right now open to question.