COMMENT

by RAY FLEMING

BY Middle East diplomatic standards the sudden progress being made on the Israeli–Palestinian problem resembles the start of a Formula One race. With the prospect of a meeting between President Bush and the leaders of the two sides next week it seems that the much–touted road map has a chance of working. The Israeli prime minister, Ariel Sharon, must share the credit for this progress. Last Sunday he somehow managed to persuade his reluctant cabinet to approve Israel's participation in the road map's peace process. Although, apparently, many reservations were passionately expressed, the cabinet's decision meant that Israel is now committed in principle to the establishment of a Palestinian state by 2005 provided that all the reciprocal provisions of the road map are acted upon by both sides. To all appearances, this is a significant development.

But is Mr Sharon serious? He has told the US government that he has substantial reservations about several aspects of the road map which he expects to be addressed. At the same time he has made statements which seem to suggest that his thinking about the Palestinian problem has undergone a sea change. For instance: “Ruling three–and–a–half million Palestinians cannot go on indefinitely. It is a bad thing for Israel, for the Palestinians and the Israeli economy” and “You may not like the word, but what's happening is occupation”. Mr Sharon's readiness to use the O–word seemed to signal a recognition on his part of the justice of the Palestinians' long–standing claims which has outraged right–wing Israelis.

Mr Sharon is very difficult to read. Understandably, given the fragility of his coalition, he sometimes has to say different things at different times to different people. But yesterday those who wanted to believe in his good faith in the forthcoming negotiations began to have serious doubts when some of his “reservations” about the road map became known in Washington. First and foremost he wants a “complete cessation of terror” before any other progress is made. At this stage it is obviously impossible for the Palestinians to guarantee this and if such an undertaking were given it would hold the whole peace process hostage to any lone terrorist. Yet, astonishingly, the Israeli reservations are believed to include also a condition that “The road map should not state that Israel must halt violence or incitement against the Palestianians.” In the published road map Israel's first reciprocal action following an end of terrorism would be to freeze the construction of Jewish settlements built on occupied land, but according to yesterday's reports Mr Sharon is asking that this requirement should be put at the end, not the start, of negotiations. This may help to explain a response made by Mr Sharon to a member of the Knesset who asked what the effect would be of the road map's paragraphs about the settlements: “There is no restriction here,” he said, “and you can build for your children and grandchildren, and I hope for your great–grandchildren as well.” The prospect for peace between Israel and the Palestinians offered by the road map is encouraging. The time has come for Ariel Sharon to speak with one voice and for the United States to insist that he should do so.