Eggs continue to lead food inflation in the annual CPI comparison for February, with an increase of 30.1% over the same month last year, while fresh fruit has seen a significant increase of 6.3% in the last 30 days. The food and non-alcoholic beverages category recorded an annual rate of 3.2%, two tenths higher than the previous month; this evolution was due, for the most part, to the stability of prices for oils and fats and fish and seafood, compared to the decreases in the same month of 2025, according to a statement released by the INE.
In the monthly comparison, the shopping basket recorded a 0.6% increase in prices due to the rise in the cost of fruit and nuts, vegetables, legumes and potatoes. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is driving up food prices in Spain primarily through indirect “knock-on” effects in energy, logistics, and agricultural inputs.
While supermarket shelves remain stocked, distributors and the Spanish government have signaled that a sustained conflict could lead to a significant spike in grocery bills. The Spanish government is actively monitoring the situation and has indicated it may implement the following measures to protect households.
Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo has signaled that the government may reintroduce or maintain 0% VAT on basic foodstuffs to mitigate inflation. Officials are meeting with unions and business associations to discuss fuel and energy price caps to prevent a repeat of the 2022 energy crisis.
Overall grocery costs rose by 2.8% in a single month following the conflict’s escalation, with meat, fish, and seafood leading the price increases. Despite wage increases, trade unions like the USO warn that essential goods are becoming more expensive faster than salaries are rising.
Rising oil and gas prices directly increase the cost of transporting food from farms to supermarkets. In March 2026, fuel prices in some regions have soared by up to 25%, a cost that hauliers warn will eventually be passed to consumers. Roughly one-third of global fertilizer supplies, including ammonia and sulfur, pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Disruptions here can lead to higher farming costs and reduced crop yields for Spanish agriculture.
Shipping disruptions have already begun to lift fruit prices in areas like the Canary Islands and the Balearics, as longer and costlier routes are required for certain imports. Disruption of exports from the Middle East, such as dates, nuts (walnuts, almonds, pistachios), and saffron, is expected to drive up prices for these specific items.