This time last year, the tourism industry in Mallorca was looking forward to a record number of German tourists over the winter low season. Flight bookings were up seven per cent, despite some cuts to routes; these were attributed to the rise in Germany's air tax.
The forecast proved to be correct. German tourist numbers increased on average by around ten per cent. For the months November to March, German tourism was at least 50% of all foreign tourism; in March it was 62%. German and Spanish tourism combined accounted for roughly threequarters of total tourism.
Twelve months on and the picture is quite different. The forecast is for a fall of around ten per cent. This is based on airline scheduling. In September, the Spanish association for airline time slots, AECFA, announced a 13% reduction in Palma flights and a nine per cent cut to the number of seats. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) now says there is a 9.8% fall in airline bookings from Germany to the Balearics, which to all intents and purposes means Mallorca. Over 90% of German tourists in the Balearics choose Mallorca.
Spain's Turespaña tourism institute has used IATA figures in indicating that the Balearics will be one of the two main tourist regions to experience a fall in German visitor numbers over the current low season. Valencia is the other; the decrease is put at four per cent.
Turespaña cites various reasons. For the first time it refers to "anti-tourism protests, which have received extensive coverage in German media". But these are only one reason. Tourist tax, "perceived overcrowding" are among others. But the tourist tax is a quarter of the summer rate, while there can't be said to be overcrowding in the low season.
The institute goes on to say that the German market, marked by two years of contraction, is beginning to show "signs of selective pressure". This translates into a preference for competing destinations with lower prices, such as Egypt and could reflect changes to airline scheduling.
As to protests, of which there have been fewer this year than in 2024, the German Consul in Mallorca, Wolfgang Engstler, said in September that he didn't believe these had been a decisive factor in explaining the decrease in German tourism that had started in May. "For families, the evolution of prices, coupled with lower budgets, are the decisive factors." In August, Norbert Fiebig, the president of Germany's DRV travel association, was of a similar opinion.
Pedro Fiol, the president of the Aviba travel agencies association in the Balearics, shared this view. The downturn was due to price. He now says that if German tourism falls in the winter as well, "then price is no longer a valid excuse". However, does he somewhat contradict himself in observing that "the German market isn't going to give up on travelling, although they will do so differently: less frequently and for shorter stays, spending less or choosing cheaper destinations like the Canary Islands, which have good weather in winter"?
Protests may play a part, but most opinion is that Germany's economic situation is the decisive factor. Consumers' spending power has been impacted, Fiol believing that the German downturn will undermine progress in reducing seasonality. "I would venture to say that these will be difficult months, especially for Palma and for cruise tourism, which also relies heavily on German tourists."