For the Mallorca Hoteliers Federation, "2026 will be a year similar to 2025, with good vibes, diversification of markets, and a firm commitment to quality and sustainability".
In this regard, the federation reflects the consensus in the Balearic tourism industry, which can be summed up in a single word: continuity. The view is not whether the islands will be full, when occupancy and airline indicators suggest that they will be, but rather how to manage the balance between prices, capacity, coexistence, and the tourism model.
Tourism growth will no longer be measured so much by arrivals as by contribution - a greater contribution. It is the case that 2025 will finish with yet another record number of tourists - this is expected to top 19 million - but the industry accepts there is a return to some "normality" following a post-pandemic "champagne effect". There is a loss of momentum after the huge surge; it was to have been expected.
The normality has nonetheless entailed a growth in annual tourist numbers of 2.5 million since before the pandemic, while spending is said to be growing almost three times faster than arrivals. For the tourism industry - the hoteliers especially - this is confirmation of a strategy of competing on value. They point to the more than €3 billion invested over the past ten years in modernisation and product repositioning. Growth potential no longer lies in attracting more tourists in July and August, but rather in refining prices, extending the season, and improving the market mix. Summer, in terms of volume, has reached its peak.
The composition of demand will be a determining factor in 2026. The UK and Germany will continue to be the main source markets in 2026, along with Spanish tourism and "other countries", a group which covers non-European markets as well as European countries that are not individually specified in the statistics - Poland is an example. These other countries are roughly on a par with the UK, the second largest market.
Both the UK and German markets have become increasingly price-sensitive. The British are tending to take shorter holidays, while German demand is reckoned to be shifting away from the main season. However, that shift can't be said to be definitive as yet. It was the case that German tourism grew from January to April in 2025, but then so it had throughout the whole of 2024. In November, German tourist numbers did rise, these having been down from May to October.
The spending, the contribution has to be considered in terms of how tourists' money is spent. The restaurants have already signalled that they anticipate a year characterised by the same lower spending that marked 2025 and at least half of 2024. In-destination spending does of course vary dependent on location and tourist profile, but the increase in spending can generally be explained by hotel prices and the costs of travel.