The future of the morning cup of coffee could be at threat. According to Sky News, “the future of coffee is in peril,” according to a Fairtrade Foundation expert. Sustainability specialist Max Milward has warned that critical supply problems pose a “genuine risk that we won’t have coffee in the future”. However, following a 20% rise in coffee prices over the last year, the sector in Spain is relying on strong demand, better supply forecasting, margin adjustments and adaptation to new tastes to maintain its growth.
The latest data from the International Coffee Organisation (ICO) reveal that the world price of coffee has stabilised, but is 22% above November 2024 levels, amid turbulence caused by climate change, US tariffs on coffee imports (later withdrawn) and logistical problems. In Spain, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows an annual increase of 17.3% and a monthly decrease of 0.5% in November.
According to the consulting firm Circana, coffee has risen in price by 15% in the last year - more than 25% for ground or bean coffee - while most categories have seen declines in purchase volume, except for bean and natural coffee. The Spanish Coffee Association (AECafé), which represents companies in the sector, has assured EFE that they are maintaining a growth trajectory and are confident of ‘stable consumption volumes, derived from a better supply and greater knowledge of coffee culture’.
The AECafé pointed out that this imported raw material has been affected by droughts, frosts and heat waves in major producing countries such as Vietnam and Brazil. In addition, instability in the Suez Canal has forced coffee from Southeast Asia and Africa to be diverted, causing delays and higher freight costs. In the face of these crises, the sector has highlighted that it has resources such as diversification of origins and suppliers, the signing of medium and long-term agreements, and continuous improvement in production and logistics efficiency.
According to Pascual’s Coffee Business Director, Javier Peña, companies are facing continuous price increases at source due to poor harvests; growth of more than 10% in global demand, driven by Chinese domestic consumption; increased differentials; the tariff war; and the arrival of speculative investment funds.
Pascual, with its Mocay, Jurado and Saula brands, has been building a coffee business, especially in the last three years, and aspires to be a leader in the Horeca channel, with a differentiated value proposition. Its manager expects to grow at the end of the year ‘above the market, despite the slowdown in the Horeca (hotels, restaurants and cafés) sector’ observed since the summer, and to continue expanding in 2026.
Sources at Cafés Candelas believe that, during 2025, consumers have responded well, although their purchasing power has declined and inflation has hurt both the Horeca channel and retail.
In the short term, they expect consumption to stabilise with prices remaining high and a highly segmented market. In view of the instability, Cafés Candelas is working ‘with great foresight to guarantee supply without compromising quality’. Price increases for customers or end consumers have also had ‘a small impact’, compared to increases in the markets of up to 80%.