The Balearic Islands are successfully averting a significant demographic downturn, with overall population figures on the rise. However, this growth masks a concerning internal trend: 41 municipalities are experiencing more deaths than births. This paradox highlights a fundamental shift in the region's population dynamics, where external factors now play a pivotal role in maintaining demographic stability.
Specifically, Mallorca and Menorca have firmly entered a period of demographic decline, with both islands recording more deaths than births by the close of 2024. This trend underscores a significant shift that has been developing over the past decade. Data released by Spain's National Statistics Institute (INE) last week confirms that a substantial number of Balearic municipalities are grappling with negative natural growth, indicating a population decrease if not for other factors.
The islands are spared from a more severe demographic crisis primarily due to continued population gains in Ibiza and Formentera, alongside a steady influx of new residents from other parts of Spain and abroad.
The impact of this demographic shift is starkly illustrated by the fact that the Balearics gained a mere 66 new residents born within the islands last year. The natural balance between births and deaths saw Ibiza welcome 326 new inhabitants born on the islands, with Formentera adding 24. In contrast, Menorca recorded 128 more deaths than births, while Mallorca's figures showed a deficit of 156.
A geographical analysis reveals varied natural growth patterns: many municipalities in northern and Llevant Mallorca show positive growth, whereas inland areas face the opposite. Notably, densely populated areas like Palma and Calvia exhibit particularly negative balances due to their unique demographic profiles. This data unequivocally demonstrates that without the arrival of immigrants, the archipelago's population figures would have remained virtually stagnant, increasing by only 66 residents compared to the previous year.
Experts in human geography have been issuing warnings for years about the direct consequences of this falling birth rate. They highlight the formation of a society with fewer young people, an increasing number of elderly individuals, and a growing imbalance between the dependent population and those of working age. These specialists concur that Mallorca, in particular, is entering a phase where population growth is no longer guaranteed by births but by migration. This necessitates the urgent planning of long-term public policies addressing critical areas such as housing, social integration, education, and care services.
While the decline in birth rates has been offset by the arrival of immigrants, the overall population increase has been relatively modest. As of 1st September this year, the Balearic Islands reached a total of 1,255,061 inhabitants. This represents a 0.2% increase compared to the previous quarter and a 0.9% rise from the same month in the previous year. The quarterly growth is almost imperceptible, with the archipelago adding 11,540 inhabitants over the year leading up to September. Given the contained birth rate, it is clear that nearly all of these new residents are immigrants.