In its Annual Risk Analysis 2025/2026, Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, warns of the possibility of individuals with "potentially malicious intentions" arriving in the Balearics or on the Spanish mainland under the guise of being illegal migrants.
Frontex points to coastal areas of north Africa, where "migrant smugglers offer their services". The agency says there is "rigorous surveillance" by the authorities in these countries, making it difficult for people of other nationalities to remain and contact the smugglers without being detected. However, "smuggling groups have developed tactics to evade detection and ensure that migrant boats reach Spain".
"This can allow individuals with potentially malicious intentions to mingle with irregular migrants, enter the EU undetected, and potentially engage in criminal activities.
The report predicts a decrease in departures from Morocco and an increase in crossings from Algeria, leading to a shift in departure points to more eastern areas of the region and "resulting in an increase in arrivals in the Balearic Islands".
Frontex adds a general warning for all of Europe. As migration from conflict-affected regions increases, so does the risk of infiltration by individuals who pose a threat to the EU's internal security, "such as criminals, terrorists, saboteurs and intelligence agents". "These individuals take advantage of migration routes to enter European territories, further complicating border security operations."
The Spanish Government's delegate in the Balearics, Alfonso Rodríguez, accepts the points made by the report but offers reassurance because controls in the Balearics are exhaustive. Following initial assistance from the Guardia Civil, migrants are checked by the National Police, who take their identity documents and fully verify that there is no risk to the population. "The police conduct exhaustive checks on all arrivals before releasing them."