The president of the Aviba association of travel agencies, Pedro Fiol, anticipates "very high occupancy" in October and a likely extension of the season until mid-November.
Fiol says that tourist demand is currently divided between "those who continue to come in high season and can afford it, even if they are reducing the number of days, and those who don't want to give up their holidays in the Balearics but postpone them or bring them forward to months with lower prices".
The experience this season has been one of further growth in tourist numbers but of shorter stays and lower spending in the complementary sector (restaurants, excursions, shops, etc.). The lower spending is by contrast with 2022 and 2023, though the trend towards shorter durations was evident last year - down by around one day to 6.5 days on average. In the past fifteen years, the highest average duration was 9.4 days in 2009.
While shorter stays may well be due to higher prices, they may also reflect a shift in holidaying habits - more vacations or breaks but of short duration.
For the late season, the TravelgateX travel market network and analysts Mabrian both point to an increase - around two per cent. TravelgateX says that certain markets will be higher, such as the British. Mabrian highlights growth of the Spanish market. The British and Spanish markets, numbers two and three in terms of tourist numbers in the Balearics, both experienced double-digit falls in July - 10% and 13% respectively.
Regarding these falls, Fiol doesn't view them as problematic. "We are compensating with growth of other markets with higher purchasing power. It's not a tragedy. Given the level of arrivals, which are an absolute record, we can allow for these small fluctuations."
Where Spanish tourists are concerned, a study by the National Observatory of Outbound Tourism, which includes the likes of Iberia and Amadeus, has shown that Spanish travellers are increasingly choosing holidays in the less crowded months of the year.