In Catalonia, a state of emergency for drought applies in parts of the region. At the end of 2023, Tarragona and the north of Girona were placed on emergency. This has now been extended to the area of Catalonia supplied by the Ter Llobegrat water system. This includes the Barcelona metropolitan area.
Reserves have dipped below 16%, the consequence of three years without sufficient and significant rainfall. Deeply concerning though the situation in Catalonia is, it is not mirrored in the Balearics. The most recent data for all reserves on the islands are for December, when they were 53%. This was similar to December 2022 - 55%. The data for January will be released in a few days; it is not thought that these will show a great variation.
The visible sign of water reserves in Mallorca is given by the reservoirs. Cúber and Gorg Blau were at around 40% in mid-January. But when other sources of water are added, the reserves have been greater.
There are different stages of drought condition. Whereas Catalonia is experiencing a drought, the Balearics are at drought pre-alert, with the exception of Formentera which is at alert. Mallorca and Menorca, as of December, were best off, with 54% reserves; Ibiza was at 43% and has had barely any rain since December. In January, according to Aemet, rainfall in Mallorca was 32% greater than normal.
In 2023, the peak availability of water reserves in the Balearics as a whole was in March and April; they stood at 62%. The Balearic government's ministry of the sea and the water cycle says that it expects rainfall between now and summer to increase reserves to a more reassuring level. Last year, for instance, Storm Juliette arrived towards the end of February and deposited up to 200 litres per square metre of rain over a 24-hour period.
But just because there was a particularly severe storm a year ago doesn't mean there will be one this year. Moreover, torrential rain, while good for reservoirs, is less good for the aquifers, for which regular rainfall over an extended period is more beneficial. Still, any rain is better than none.
Long-range forecasts can mean only so much. Aemet has modelled various scenarios for the February to April period. A best case appears to indicate some 120 litres per square metre in the Tramuntana; less elsewhere.
The medium-range forecasts are more meaningful. And in this regard, perhaps the ministry is right to be expecting rain. Aemet weather stations currently point to a 90% probability of rain on Friday (February 9) for the whole of Mallorca.