Iago Negueruela, the employment, trade and industry minister, expects the year to close with the Balearic economy having grown by 4.1% and anticipates that 2017 will record 3.7% growth. He doesn't, therefore, believe that the UK referendum result will have a negative impact because tourist bookings for 2017 are increasing.
The government's forecast for next year contrasts with others. The Funcas savings banks' association has come up with a lower figure of 2.5%, attributing this largely to a Brexit effect. Negueruela says that Funcas has changed its forecast for this year four times and that what most concerns the government is the political situation caused by Brexit and not tourism, for which there is a positive outlook. Even if UK tourist spending drops, he believes that this would represent no more than an average fall in spending of 6%.
Funcas isn't, though, the only organisation to point to a more significant fall in growth than the government is forecasting. Last week, BBVA Research, which is close to the government's figure for this year (with a 3.9% growth estimate), reported that this will be down to 2.7% in 2017. Brexit, as far as BBVA is concerned, will have an impact.
Breaking next year's forecast down island by island, the government sees Ibiza and Formentera having growth of 3.8%, Majorca's being 3.7% and Minorca's 3.3%.
Returning to this year's performance, the government notes that various organisations have been forecasting higher growth in the Balearics than in all other regions. One of these is BBVA which, despite the lower forecast for next year, believes that the Balearics will remain the national leader in terms of growth.