The president of the Aviba association of travel agencies in the Balearics, Pedro Fiol, says that many hotels are anticipating 90% occupancy at Easter, there having been solid demand since December. So it won't be a case of hotels opening purely "on a whim".
This occupancy has to take account of how many hotels will be open for Easter week - March 24 to 31. The Mallorca Hoteliers Federation reckons there will be 70% opening, with certain parts of the island busier than others. In resort areas, Playa de Palma will have at least three-quarters of hotels open. In Alcudia 60% is the estimate; Cala d'Or more like 45%.
Final occupancy figures will be determined by last-minute bookings, and these will depend in part on what the weather looks like.
More hotels do now open for Easter than was once the case. Even when Easter was late, they tended not to bother and waited until what is taken to be the official start of the season - May 1. But earlier opening (from February onwards) has been encouraged because of sports tourism demand in particular - cycling, most notably.
Another factor at play is the early recall of employees who have 'fijo discontinuo' contracts (and there are more employees than ever with these contracts). Whereas it has been argued in the past that fijo discontinuo acted as a disincentive to open early (because the employees can draw benefit), it is now suggested that hotels want to ensure the continued employment of valuable staff. Hotels have been experiencing problems with staff shortages in key areas.
What was a traditional six-month season from May to October, a season which determined employment, has been eaten into over recent years. Despite Easter falling early this year, what would once have been a very fallow period until the first of May will be much busier, and again this owes much to sports tourism demand.