Based on seasonal forecasts and long-range climate models, the Western Mediterranean region is expected to have a drier-than-usual end of 2025, especially in December, along with stormy conditions and generally warmer sea surface temperatures. A developing La Niña is a major factor influencing this weather pattern.
November
Weather pattern: Deep Atlantic waves are expected to move into the region, which could fuel rain events. A weak, moist air wave is also forecast to bring a slight temperature drop.
Rainfall: Localised rain events are likely due to the active Atlantic weather patterns, but the overall forecast leans toward drier conditions in western and central Europe.
Temperature: Temperatures are generally expected to be mild. Areas like Palma will see average daily temperatures in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius in early November, cooling to the mid-10s by the end of the month.
Sea temperature: Sea surface temperatures are projected to be warmer than average, especially in the western Mediterranean.
December
Weather pattern: The weather pattern is expected to shift, with atmospheric activity declining in the western Mediterranean. However, low-pressure systems and storms will remain active, focusing more on the central and eastern Mediterranean. The overall pattern is influenced by a strong high-pressure zone over much of the continent.
Rainfall: A significantly drier-than-usual pattern is expected to set in for many parts of Europe, including the Western Mediterranean.
Temperature: Temperatures will continue to drop, reflecting the seasonal change.
Mallorca: Daytime highs will be around 14–15°C.
Costa del Sol: Daytime highs will be around 15°C.
Canary Islands: These islands will be the warmest, with average highs of about 20°C.
Sea temperature: Sea temperatures will cool to about 16°C in places like Mallorca and the Costa del Sol but will be warm enough for swimming in the Canary Islands.
Winter 2025/2026 outlook
Major factors: A developing La Niña and changes in the jet stream patterns are the primary drivers for the long-range winter forecast. The jet stream is expected to pull pressure systems further north, leading to different weather patterns across Europe.
Overall outlook: The beginning of winter in Europe is forecast to be relatively calm, followed by more active weather later in the season. The Western Mediterranean, however, is expected to see a noticeable decline in atmospheric activity compared to the central and eastern parts.
Temperatures: While some long-range models suggest a colder winter for parts of Europe, warmer-than-average conditions are expected to persist at times in southwestern Europe.
Precipitation: The trend of drier conditions in the Western Mediterranean is likely to continue through the early part of winter.