With Spain considering various measures to combat extreme heat such as closing bar and restaurant terraces during heatwaves, introducing cool protection hubs in public buildings and adjusting working habits to enable people to avoid the heat, changing weather patterns are having an impact on how people travel.
Summers in Mallorca have been getting hotter and this appears to be the model for the future, according to experts. With Mallorca suffering more tropical nights, experts are sounding the alarm about the chance of a “super” El Niño this year, as the latest projections show that the Pacific Ocean is on track for an intense warmup. This could trigger a persistent - or potentially irreversible - climate shift.
According to the World Meteorological Organization, almost every major climate model points to El Niño arriving by May, with average sea surface temperatures on track to rise 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) by early summer. This would constitute a “strong” El Niño, which would have serious implications for global temperatures and weather patterns. But it could be even worse.
And, Booking.com’s 2026 Travel & Sustainability Report reveals a growing tension in travel decisions, with nearly three quarters of travelers globally saying they consider extreme weather risk when choosing both destination (74%) and timing (74%), and nearly one-third (31%) canceling a trip due to these risks – often before the trip even starts.
The concern is not without merit: 1 in 4 (26%) of travellers have already experienced extreme weather or a natural disaster when traveling in the past 12 months. More than half (55%) say these risks are stressful when planning a trip, with the same number (55%) saying unpredictable weather makes it hard to know when to travel. As a result, data suggests a demand trend beyond traditional peak months and popular destinations.
Shifting Demand Beyond Peak Season
While peak travel season has traditionally been concentrated in the months of June to August, data is showing a shift for travelers, with 42% planning to travel out of peak season and 25% seeking cooler destinations. This is supported by the over half (55%) that deemed some destinations too hot to visit during their preferred time, pointing to a larger trend towards travel that offers increased climate reliability and comfort.
Signs of this behavior are visible today: Booking.com accommodation search data shows an increase of global searches to Slovenia (+29%), Norway (+33%) and Finland (+27%) during the peak travel months in 2025, compared to the year prior. Research from the European Travel Commission shows September emerging as a major travel month, with 22% of Europeans planning trips in 2025 (vs. 25% in July and August). These options would also appeal to the travellers more likely to go to a less popular destination to avoid large crowds (68%), and avoid destinations known for extreme weather (68%).
Adapting to Capture Changing Demand
The impact of climate-related travel disruptions has already been felt by accommodation partners, 40% have already adjusted operations due to climate risks, with nearly 1 in 4 (24%) experiencing disruption in guest arrival / departure due to extreme weather, and 23% witnessing guest discomfort directly leading to negative reviews.
This creates an opportunity to proactively address climate-related concerns (e.g. extreme heat) to protect the guest experience and boost confidence during the booking process. For those partners in ‘cooler’ destinations, this presents an opportunity to capture demand by positioning their properties as more comfortable, reliable alternatives. Beyond more stable climates, travellers may also be attracted to fewer crowds and better value for money.
“Holidays are a big emotional and financial investment for most of us; and thinking about where and when to go to minimize the chance of disruption or discomfort is a key part of that decision making process for travellers,” said Matthias Schmid, SVP of Accommodations at Booking.com. “Accommodation providers who can proactively address some of the risks and worries of travellers have an opportunity to build the trust of guests and maintain the best possible experience for customers”.