The likelihood of an El Niño event developing from this summer onwards is increasing according to the latest analyses, although it is still too early to determine its potential consequences with any precision, the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) has reported.
In a thread posted via its official X account, the Aemet explained that climate models point to a possible transition towards El Niño conditions in the coming months, following the current neutral phase of the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) phenomenon.
The agency explains that a gradual warming of the surface waters of the equatorial Pacific is being observed, one of the characteristic signs of this climate phenomenon with significant global influence, which triggered the tragic storm that struck Valencia and surrounding areas in October 2024.
However, it warns that these forecasts are still subject to a high degree of uncertainty, particularly in spring, one of the most challenging periods for predicting the evolution of ENSO, and that forecasts will become more reliable from May onwards. ‘Prediction models show a probability of around 60% that an El Niño event will develop in early summer, and there is a 20 to 25% probability that it will be a very strong event heading into autumn,’ warned Aemet.
If confirmed, El Niño could alter temperature and rainfall patterns in various regions of the world, although its impact on Europe and Spain is more limited and uncertain. Aemet stresses that it will be necessary to monitor developments over the coming months to confirm the phenomenon’s development and assess its effects more accurately
“It is likely that an El Niño phenomenon will develop from summer onwards, but it is still too early to speak of a ‘Super Niño’. It is still difficult to know what consequences this might have on a global scale,” concluded Aemet. Romualdo Romero, Professor of Atmospheric Physics at the University of the Balearic Islands (UIB), told the Bulletin “We need to start getting used to a more tropical Mallorca - we can ease climate change but not stop it”.
“The climate simulation models point to a clearly more adverse future in the Mediterranean area. The western Mediterranean, and specifically the Balearics, is a hotspot for climate change. Everything points to a future decrease in average rainfall and a clear increase in temperatures, especially in the hottest part of the year. This situation tends to exacerbate the climate, which is already semi-arid by nature.
“Yes, we will continue to have rain in the Balearics, but we are looking at shorter periods but more intense, hence problems with flooding, transport and agriculture. And, as we’ve been experiencing, stronger winds. But every season is different and that is what makes my field of work and investigation so exciting, it’s far from boring.
“At the moment we’re all talking about the wet and harsh winter but soon we’ll all be talking about the hot summer. Like I said, it’s seasonal and will continue to be so. Here in the Balearics we’ve seen the end of spring and summer become much hotter, heatwaves are more common as are tropical nights and the latter is something we’re going to have to get used to. The Balearics are going to become more tropical.”