Travel agencies are forecasting slightly more moderate growth in bookings this year, around 5% compared to 2025, and are ‘quite concerned’ about the global context and the possible impact on travel of the disagreements between the United States and the European Union (EU), according to the ACAVE - Corporate Association of Specialised Travel Agencies.
Its president, Jordi Martí, said on Thursday at the Fitur trade fair that, despite this slight moderation compared to 2024, when growth stood at between 8% and 10%, the outlook is ‘very good’. It is ‘an optimistic scenario, but it depends on what happens with Greenland because, if a confrontation arises, the Spanish outbound and inbound sectors would be greatly affected,’ he warned.
‘We will have to be very attentive to price increases, the impact on fuel prices or even border restrictions, but, for the moment, we are not noticing any effect, quite the contrary: bookings are being made as normal,’ he assured. Furthermore, despite the inflationary context of recent years, this will be a season of stabilisation and the average profitability of trips will remain at the same levels as in 2025, he predicted.
Among the main challenges, the most important one he has identified is geopolitics and hypothetical international conflicts that affect the possibility of travelling to certain areas. A second perceived risk he referred to is the increase in travel costs, especially due to the impact on fuel and air transport prices.
Added to this is the challenge posed by climate change and the fact that certain destinations are becoming hotter every year, which will deter travellers in the long term. Furthermore, the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into agencies’ work processes is both a challenge and a concern. Long-haul trips will be most in demand this year, particularly to Asia, and in terms of products, so-called experience packages.
In terms of traveller segments, agencies highlight three in particular: senior tourism, luxury tourism and family tourism. The duration of trips is expected to remain in line with previous years, with an average of 8-10 days per trip, while the advance booking period will be equal to or greater than the 2025 average (two months in advance).
The domestic destinations with the best prospects for 2026 will mainly be the Balearic and Canary Islands, followed by urban destinations such as London and Manchester. Next are the Mediterranean coast of the peninsula and a booming rural tourism industry in the interior. The domestic destinations to be discovered will mainly be some inland and northern Spain destinations, in regions such as Extremadura, Galicia, Cantabria, Castile and León, and Aragon.
Internationally, the geographical area that will experience the most growth in demand will be Asia, with countries such as China, Japan, Indonesia, and Thailand leading the way. Europe will be in second place in terms of growth, with significant development in demand for destinations in the centre and east of the continent.
Meanwhile, the geographical area that will see a decline in demand is the United States, a trend that has already been recorded in 2025 due to the travel restrictions imposed by Donald Trump’s government, which do not help people feel comfortable travelling to the country. Destinations to discover will be Angola, Central America, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Bhutan, Zambia and even the island of Socotra in Yemen for the more intrepid travellers.