According to the latest projections from NASA, sea level in the Balearics will rise between 0.38 and 0.77 metres by 2100. The range depends on scenarios of the ability to mitigate the effects of climate change, and the projections are based on the period 1995 to 2014.
Damià Gomis, professor of earth physics and director of the Interdisciplinary Laboratory on Climate Change at the University of the Balearic Islands, spoke recently about rising sea levels and temperatures. "The current trend is scary. There has already been an average increase of more than one degree. Between the last century and the current one, sea level has risen more than 20 centimetres in the Balearics. The current rate is three millimetres per year. If the average temperature has increased by more than two degrees by 2100, we will have reached the point of no return."
Miguel Agulles is a researcher at the Imedea Mediterranean Institute of Advanced Studies. He earned a doctorate at the university with his thesis regarding coastal threats posed by climate change. He considered the specific case of the Balearics and the role that posidonia sea grass can play in reducing the impact of the flooding of beaches.
"Given an average sea level rise of 70 centimetres by the end of the century, the loss of all posidonia would mean a level of flooding of beaches of one and a half metres during storm events. Half would be attributable to the rise in sea level and the other half to the absence of posidonia.
"In the worst-case scenario, a medium-slope natural beach in the Balearics would experience about 40-45 metres of retreat as the result of an extreme event. With posidonia as it currently is, the permanent retreat of the coast would be about ten metres in average conditions, but would reach up to 23 metres in extreme conditions."