The latest poll by the Balearic Institute of Social Studies indicates that this May's municipal election will result in a majority for right-wing parties at Palma town hall.
By comparison with the 2019 election, the Partido Popular are set to increase their number of councillors from six to nine and Vox from four to six. There are 29 councillors in total, meaning a majority of 15. A PP-Vox combination would give 15.
For parties on the left which form the current coalition administration, Mayor José Hila's PSOE are looking at the loss of one councillor - down to eight - while Més and Unidas Podemos will remain the same, both with three councillors.
The maths look pretty straightforward, but forming coalition administrations is very rarely straightforward, and for the PP's Jaime Martínez there is the fact that his party has been reluctant to speak about pacts with Vox; there are in fact misgivings about alliances with Vox. The PP have been hoping for absolute majorities (Balearic parliament, Council of Mallorca as well as Palma), but polls have consistently shown that they will be well short of these.