A study by Jaume Rosselló and Andreu Sansó of the University of the Balearic Islands' applied economics department suggests that the tourist tax will reduce the number of tourist "stays" by around one per cent. Based on a total of 81.9 million stays (i.e. the number of nights spent by all the tourists who come to the Balearics), the reduction will be in the region of 880,000.
This is the worst-case scenario, the study suggests. A more moderate scenario is for a reduction half this amount, the research having been conducted using an econometric model drawing on previous studies of Balearic tourism price elasticity. The research also takes into account an average rate of tourist tax in the main season (1.25 euros, given that there are four rates from 50 cents to two euros) and an average of 0.62 cents in the low season when the 50% discount applies. The 81.9 million stays are divided into 70.2 million from May to October and 11.7 million from November to April.
The impact of the tax is therefore portrayed as being minimal. The researchers suggest that tourist decision-making is based on various factors other than just price.