Palma.Tourist trade in Spain will tumble 0.3 percent this year, the Alliance for Excellence in Tourism (Exceltur) said yesterday, claiming the forecast was due to the country's unfavourable socio-economic climate and due to reports that, even though foreign tourism will continue increasing, it will not compensate for the major downturn in national tourism.
The tourism lobby predicted that the industry will enter recession this year following continued growth since 2009 and revised the forecasts made at the beginning of the year when it estimated that the sector would maintain similar levels to those registered in 2011, when growth stood at around 0.2%.
Exceltur pointed out that the revision of 5 decimal points is in any event below that of 1.2 points by which analysts have needed to adjust the Spanish economy as a whole (-1.7%). Despite everything, with this adjustment, tourism will once again perform better than the Spanish economy as a whole, said Exceltur's vice president, José Luis Zoreda at a press conference yesterday.
In the first quarter of 2012, Spanish tourist business declined from a growth of 0.9% in the final quarter of last year to a slight growth of 0.1% in the first three months of this year.
Doing better
Nevertheless, tourism is doing better than the rest of the Spanish economy as it is creating almost 2'000 new jobs, in stark contrast to decline in other national industries.
Zoreda said the continued downturn in national tourism and less (although still growing) enthusiasm from the foreign client markets in comparison with 2011, explain the downturn in tourist business which we have observed in the first quarter of this year, culminating in disappointing results over the Easter period. The decline in available income and the growth of employment in Spain is what is prompting the continued downturn in national tourism, more in their journeys abroad than within Spain (462'000 less overnight stays). As a result, the Spanish have become more price sensitive, choosing the most economic option, often electing to stay in an apartment rather than an hotel, or even on camp site and using a private car for travel.
Meanwhile, the foreign demand for holidays in Spain continued to climb in the first quarter of this year, and in fact laid claim to being the only positive aspect of the tourist industry in Spain.
Nevertheless figures are not as high as they were for foreign tourism in 2011. Political turmoil in North Africa has simmered down and those who visited Spain because they could not holiday in Egypt or Tunisia in 2011 are now lured back to their first port of call.
Exceltur said that the response from the Spanish tourist industry's key client countries varied considerably. The most positive result was from the Russian market which grew by 50 percent in the first quarter of this year, Scandinavian countries by 2.4% and from Central European countries such as Austria by 13.9%, and Switzerland (3.9%) compared to a decline in the traditional British and German markets.
Overall results
The overall results for companies in the tourist industry in the first quarter of 2012 has slumped; 57.3% of Spanish tourist businesses reported a year-on-year downturn in their sales in Spain in the first three months of this year, a decline which rose to affect 73.4% of companies in the early part of Easter. The increase in fixed costs (for example for electricity) also meant that there were worsening returns for 62.5% of Spanish tourist businesses.