By Ray Fleming
TWO leading opinion polls taken last week after George Osborne announced the details of his 81 billion pounds government spending cuts have given different results. The Times/Populus poll showed Labour in the lead by a single point (38-37) for the first time in three years.
The Guardian/ICM poll put the Conservatives ahead by three points (39-36). It would be unwise to put too much weight on either outcome except to say that the Conservatives can safely conclude that the Chancellor's tough proposals have not led to an immediate flight to Labour. Incidentally, for anyone interested in how the Liberal Democrats are doing, the answer is that both polls again put them on 15 per cent. Will this ever change?
Some subsidiary questions asked by ICM are perhaps more indicative of how the polls may move in the future. Fifty per cent of AB social groups thought the cuts fair while 54 per cent DE respondents took the reverse view. Overall, 52 per cent thought the cuts would hurt the poor disproportionately while 44 per cent considered them to be fair to all. It will probably be a year or so before the impact of the cuts in increased unemployment, in growing difficulty in making ends meet at the end of the month, and in declining public services will be felt sufficiently to be reflected in the polls.