by MONITOR
Since it achieved independence in 1947 Pakistan has lurched from corrupt elected civilian governments to military dictatorships. In 1999 General Pervez Musharraf seized power and since then has tried to combine military rule with a semblance of elected democracy. The formula has worked on and off, and was strengthened by America's support because of Pakistan's proximity to Afghanistan in its war against terrorism.
But the compromise has now reached the end of its credibility, as events of the past few days have shown. General Musharraf was re-elected to the Presidency by those members of Pakistan's elected assemblies who did not absent themselves from the voting in protest. He now awaits the judgment of the Supreme Court as to whether he was eligible to stand for the presidency while still in uniform. Meanwhile he has done a deal with the former prime minister Benazir Bhutto whereby corruption charges against her will be dropped so that she can return from exile to lead her Pakistan Peoples' Party in parliamentary elections in January.
Two issues now face Musharraf. What will he do if the Supreme Court rules him ineligible for the presidency? If it rules in his favour will he honour his pledge to retire as head of the army? On past form Musharraf cannot be counted on to accept a negative ruling by the Court or to keep his promise to take off his uniform. If he fails on either count Pakistan's problems will deepen.