MUGABE'S OPTIONS

by RAY FLEMING
WHEN will the silence over Zimbabwe's presidential election break? It may have done so before these words are in print but a delay that has stretched to three days might easily be extended. Suggestions that the local Election Commission is slowing down the count in the interests of accuracy can be dismissed. Robert Mugabe or others acting for him are holding up the announcement of the result because the scale of his defeat is such that no amount of vote-rigging can turn it into a victory. One scenario is that votes will be adjusted to give Morgan Tsvangirai, the leader of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), an advantage over Mugabe but not the 51 per cent of the votes he needs for an outright win; a run-off contest would then follow. Perhaps Mugabe's supporters think vote-rigging would be easier in a head-to-head contest but it is just as likely that Tsvangirai's backers would redouble their efforts to see that their candidate did not lose when for the first time he is so close to winning. A more likely outcome is that Mugabe will follow the path of many despotic African leaders before him -- negotiate an exit that guarantees freedom from retrospective prosecution and a safe house in a sympathetic state. But that would be the easy part -- the problem would be the hundreds of those close to Mugabe whose offences during his dictatorship cannot so easily be dismissed.